Good morning, and welcome to Deer and Company Third Quarter Earnings Conference Call. I would now like to turn the call over to Mr. Christopher Seibert, director of investor relations. Thank you.
You may begin.
Hello. Welcome, and thank you for joining us on today's call. Joining me on the call today are Brent Norwood, Chief Financial Officer Deanna Kovar, President, Worldwide Agriculture and Turf Division, Production and Precision Ag, Sales and Marketing, Regions of the Americas and Australia.
And Joshua Jepsen, Manager, Investor Communications. Today, we will take a closer look at Deere's third quarter earnings, then spend some time talking about our end markets, our current outlook for fiscal 2026. After that, we will respond to your questions.
Please note that slides are available to complement the call this morning. They can be accessed on our website at johndeere.com/earnings. First, a reminder, this call is broadcast live on the Internet and recorded for future transmission and use by Deere and Company.
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That are subject to uncertainties, risks, changes in circumstances, and other factors that are difficult to predict. Additional information concerning factors that could cause actual results to differ materially is contained in the company's most recent Form 8-Ks, risk factors in the annual Form 10-Ks, as updated by reports filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission. This call also may include financial measures that are not in conformance with accounting principles generally accepted in the United States of America.
GAAP. Additional information concerning these measures including reconciliations to comparable GAAP measures, is included in the release and posted on our website at johndeere.com/earnings. Under quarterly earnings and events.
I will now turn the call over to Christopher Seibert.
Good morning, and thank you for joining us. John Deere delivered a strong third quarter. With equipment operations achieving 14.4% operating margin.
While conditions vary across our end markets, we continue to see pockets of strength in agriculture, producers remain focused on managing profitability. Impacted by fluctuating commodity fundamentals and uncertainty around input costs and crop demand. All of which are influencing capital spending decisions by region.
At the same time, construction, compact construction, and turf markets remain supported by healthy, project activity and steady demand fundamentals. Reinforcing the value of Deere's diversified portfolio. Against this backdrop, Deere's performance continues to underscore the strength of our operating model.
Across our factories, warehouses, and offices. Teams executed well throughout the quarter. Delivering strong performance while maintaining cost discipline.
We also made continued progress improving inventory health, positioning Deere, our dealers, our customers to respond effectively as market conditions evolve. We will now begin with slide 3. And our results for the third quarter.
Net sales and revenues were up 5% to 12.608 billion and net sales for the equipment operations were up 6%. To $10.999 billion. Net income attributable to Deere and Company for the quarter was 1.379 billion or $5.10 per diluted share.
Diving into our individual business segments, we will start with production and precision ag on slide 4. Net sales of 3.998 billion were down 6% compared to the third quarter last year. Primarily due to lower shipment volumes partially offset by favorable price realization and currency translation.
Price realization was positive by 2.5 points Currency translation was also positive by slightly over 1.5 points. Operating profit was 527 million with a 13.2% operating margin for the segment. The year over year decrease was primarily due to lower shipment volumes and higher production costs.
Which were partially offset by favorable price realization and the effects of currency exchange. Next, we will turn to small ag and turf, on slide 5. Net sales were up 12% year over year.
Totaling 3.383 billion the third quarter due to higher shipment volumes and favorable price realization. The price realization was positive by a little over 1.5 points. Currency translation was negative.
By roughly half a point. Operating profit increased year over year to 622 million leading to a 18.4% operating margin. The increase was primarily due to higher shipment volumes and sales mix, along with favorable price realization partially offset by higher production costs.
Slide 6 is our industry outlook for ag and turf markets globally for fiscal 2026. In US and Canada, we continue to expect the large ag equipment industry sales to decline 15 to 20% year over year. As farm profitability remains muted and producers navigate elevated input costs commodity price volatility, and the ongoing uncertainty around agricultural markets.
The small ag and turf industry in the U.S. and Canada remains relatively stable. With industry sales expected to be flat to up 5%. Healthy margins within the dairy and livestock sector coupled with steady demand in residential and commercial mowing, continue to support the outlook.
Shifting to Europe, we now expect industry sales to be approximately flat for the year. Reflecting softer market conditions and continued pressure on arable farm profitability. Favorable dairy margins continue to support.
The broader outlook. In South America, elevated production costs and higher interest rates continue to pressure farm economics and impact equipment purchase decision. We now expect the industry outlook to be down 15 to 20%.
Lastly, in Asia, we continue to expect industry sales to remain approximately flat. Supported by relatively stable end market conditions across the region following the modest improvements in India we communicated last quarter. Moving on to our segment forecast beginning on slide 7.
For production in precision ag, we have trended toward the bottom end of our prior guidance range and now expect net sales to be down approximately 10% for the year. This update reflects further industry softening within South America and Europe The forecast also includes a point of positive price realization for the year as well as close to 2.5 points of favorable currency translation. Our full year forecast for the segment's operating margin has been narrowed, and is now between 11-12%.
Slide 8 covers our forecast for small ag and turf segment. We continue to expect net sales to be up approximately 15% for the full year, This guide includes 1.5 points of positive price realization, as well as roughly half a point of favorable currency translation. The segment's operating margin guide has been increased to between 14.5-15.5%.
Shifting now to construction forestry on slide 9. Net sales for the quarter were up 18% year over year, to 3.618 billion a result of higher shipment volumes and favorable price realization. Price realization was positive by 8 points reflecting year over year impact of lapping retail incentive programs from the prior year combined with favorable pricing in the current year.
Currency translation was also positive, by roughly half a point. Operating profit of 436 million was up year over year resulting in a 12.1% operating margin driven by favorable price realization which was partially offset by higher SA&G R&D costs. Slide 10 provides an update to our 2026 construction forestry industry outlook.
Industry sales for earthmoving equipment in the U.S. and Canada are now expected to be up 5 to 10% for construction equipment and up 5% for compact construction equipment. Reflecting strong demand from large scale infrastructure data center, and energy related projects as well as continued investment in rental fleet to support elevated levels of end market activity. Within global forestry, we now expect the industry to be down 10% for the year.
As subdued residential construction activity and softer log and lumber prices continue to weigh on equipment demand especially in North America. The projection for global road building market remains steady at up approximately 10% for the year. Supported by favorable infrastructure spending trends healthy contractor backlogs, and continued investment in road construction across key regions.
Moving on to the Construction and Forestry segment on slide 11. The 2026 net sales forecast remained steady at up approximately 20% for the full year. The guidance for the year now includes 3 points of favorable price realization, and approximately 1.5 points of favorable currency translation.
The forecast for this segment's operating margin has been tightened, to between 10.5-11.5% for the year. Transitioning to our financial services operation, on slide 12. Worldwide Financial Services net income attributable to Deere and Company in the third quarter was 219 million.
Net income was higher in the quarter due to favorable price financing spreads. Partially offset by the impact of lower average portfolio compared to the prior year. For fiscal year 26, our full year outlook has increased to $870 million.
On slide 13, outline our guidance of for net income effective tax rate, and operating cash flows. For fiscal year 26, we improved our net income outlook raising it to a range of 4.75 to 5 billion. Reflecting the strong results delivered in the quarter and our confidence in the outlook for the remainder of the year.
Fiscal guidance continues to reflect an effective tax rate between 24-26% And lastly, cash flow expectations from the equipment operation have also improved. To now be in the range of 5 to 5.5 billion. This concludes our formal comments.
Now shift to a discussion to cover a few topics specific to the quarter. Starting off with Deere's performance, in the third quarter, equipment operations net sales improved 6% year over year, and we saw equipment operations operating margins come in at 14.4%. Christopher?
Can you provide some additional color on the performance for this quarter?
Absolutely, Dan. This quarter's result reflects strong execution across all business segments. Amid a dynamic market and evolving operating environment.
Our factories performed exceptionally well and exceeded expectations on production output, combined with disciplined execution across the business and favorable price realization. This strong operational performance drove results above company, and consensus expectations for both revenue and profitability. The quarter also included multiple tariff related developments.
We recognized 110 million of incremental refunds in Q3, slightly above expectations, due to the timing of the Phase II AIPA refund approvals. As a result, total refunds recognized in fiscal year 26 now stand at 382 million. Notably, current outlook assumes no further refund activity during the balance of the fiscal year.
Looking beyond refunds, following the changes to the Section 122, 32 and 3 zero 1 policies, we now expect direct tariff expense of approximately 1.1 billion for the fiscal year. Excluding IEPA refunds. Overall, quarter underscores the strength and discipline of our operating model.
Strong execution across the business, together with improving tariff dynamics, position us well as we close out 2026.
This is Brent. I just had 1 more point on the outlook. I remain very confident in our team's ability to finish strong for the fiscal year.
Combination of our performance year to date and a strong fourth quarter order book across all segments has enabled us to narrow our guidance ranges and improve our net income and cash flow forecast despite a very dynamic market backdrop.
Thanks for the additional details, both Brent and Christopher. Building on that, had a few adjustments in the guidance ranges. Can you help walk us through the rationale?
Starting with C&F?
Sure. For C&F, we maintained our sales guidance of approximately 20% year over year growth and we narrowed our full year margin guidance to between 10.5 to 11.5%, reflecting continued confidence in the business and the outlook for the remainder of this year. The order books for 2026 are largely full, as demand fundamentals remain favorable across both the earthmoving and roadbuilding end markets.
Large scale infrastructure projects, data center construction, and pipeline activity continue to support robust customer demand. As a result, customer backlogs now extend well into fiscal year 27. Providing healthy visibility and optimism for next year.
And support our increased 2026 industry guide for construction equipment, to be up 5% to 10%. While we have increased production rates across our construction factories, continued order strength and retail momentum now have us producing modestly below retail demand. This puts field inventories at a healthy starting position for next year, and enables our dealers to support the measured expansion of their rental fleets going into 2027.
We are also seeing strong momentum across our technology portfolio. Factory installed smart grade adoption has increased more than 50% year to date, reflecting the growing role of technology in everyday construction operations. At the same time, sales of our job site safety solutions have increased nearly 40% year over year.
As customers increasingly invest in technologies that improve productivity, reduce rework, and enhance safety across the job site. Overall, remain encouraged by the outlook for the C&F business. With steady end market demand, healthy customer backlogs, and increasing adoption of our technology solutions, we believe Construction and Forestry is well positioned.
As we close out 2026 and move into 2027.
This is Brent. I would add 1 final perspective on construction and forestry. Christopher highlighted the strong growth opportunity we are seeing in both our precision construction technologies and construction portfolio.
As we think about our LEAP ambitions, CNF represents 1 of the most significant opportunities across Deere, both from a growth standpoint and in terms of the value we can create for customers. Across both agriculture and construction, labor remains constrained. And customers increasingly rely on technology to do more with less.
Deere has a long track record of addressing those challenges in agriculture, and we are seeing similar momentum in construction now. Whether through technology adoption, expansion of our digital ecosystem with solutions like Tenna, or growth of our equipment portfolio, we see a strong runway ahead. Combined with a favorable end market backdrop, these opportunities position construction and forestry to be an increasingly important contributor to Deere's long term growth strategy.
Thanks, Brent. Christopher, can you now walk us through the small ag and turf business?
Yes. While market conditions within small ag and turf vary by end customer and geography, the overall demand environment remains positive and consistent with our expectations. With order books that support the remaining sales outlook for 2026.
Our dairy and livestock customers experienced exceptionally strong farm cash flows in 2025, and have been able to maintain healthy margins in 2026 supported by strong beef prices. As a result, they continue to invest selectively in productivity enhancing equipment and solutions, that improve operating efficiency and support long term profitability. In turf, we continue to see encouraging trends, across both our residential and commercial mowing markets.
Demand in these categories has improved year over year as the market progresses toward more normalized levels, following several years of inventory and demand adjustments. Outside the U.S., India's small tractor market continues to grow, building on a strong 2025 and supported by solid farmer liquidity following the spring harvest. From a profitability standpoint, small ag and turf also benefited this quarter from the favorable impact of the IEPA refund, and the adjustments to Section 32 tariff policies.
As you combine this with strong execution across the business, these factors resulted in an improved financial performance for the year. We have now increased and narrowed full year operating margin outlook to 14.5% to 15.5%. Reflecting both the favorable policy environment and our confidence in the team's ability to continue executing at a high level as we finish this year.
Before we move on, I would like to take a moment to recognize the small ag and turf team. Strong results delivered so far this year are the outcome of exceptional execution across the organization. From managing costs and production to supporting our customers and dealers, the team has consistently performed at a high level.
Thank you, Christopher and Brent. Shifting now to production and precision ag. Deanna, can you share your perspective on the business and the current micro market environment?
Of course, Dan. Within production and precision ag this quarter, we have seen softer demand conditions in both South America and Europe. While North America has remained stable.
Despite those regional differences, overall demand has evolved largely in line with our expectations, and our order books are now effectively full. for the year. As we move through the remainder of 2026, our focus is on executing to our production plans delivering for our customers, and continuing the disciplined management of the business. Let me now break down the dynamics we are seeing across each of our key markets.
I will start with South America. Which remains a challenged region in the near term. Farmers continue to contend with elevated production costs, particularly fertilizer expenses.
As well as a higher interest rate environment that has weighed on equipment affordability and purchasing activity. As a result, market conditions remain difficult. Impacting retail sales for combines, and high horsepower tractors.
Since our order books for the fourth quarter are now closed, we have slightly revised our industry outlook to 15% to 20% down for the year. In response, we have proactively adjusted production levels and are modestly underproducing retail demand in the region. Positioning both deer and our dealers with healthy inventory levels as we enter fiscal 27.
Looking ahead, modest improvements in interest rates during the quarter, combined with the MoveAgro financing program, should improve access to capital. And help create a more supportive environment for equipment investment as we look ahead to 2027. Turning to Europe.
Improvements in wheat commodity prices have provided some support for customer sentiment. Yet profitability across much of the arable farming sector remains pressured. Elevated input costs, and uncertainties surrounding crop economics from heat and drought, have made customers more cautious about capital spending.
As a result, demand trends in the region remain mixed, and are likely to remain dependent on improvements in farm incomes and global commodity markets as we head into 2027. Demand trends in North America have remained relatively stable throughout the course of the year. Albeit at very low levels as market conditions remain challenging for our customers.
While a modest increase in commodity prices has improved farm profitability, producers continue to navigate considerable uncertainty around both input costs and trade flows for their crop production. In general, customer balance sheets remain relatively healthy. Yet many are taking a measured approach to capital spending.
As they evaluate crop margins, cash flow expectations, and the broader outlook for agriculture.
Christopher, is there anything you would like to add?
Sure, Deanna. Given the softer demand expectations in South America and Europe, we have adjusted our full year sales outlook to be down approximately 10%. At the same time, we have tightened our margin guidance to 11% to 12%.
Reflecting the revised sales outlook continuing to demonstrate the resilience of our earnings. Our ability to generate healthy margins even at sub-trough demand levels allows us to continue investing consistently through the cycle.
Thank you for all that great color. Let's shift to our model year 2027 early order programs in North America. Deanna, can you give us an update on the progress of those order programs?
Sure, Dan. Let's begin with where we are with regards to timing. The early order program for sprayers opened in mid May and is still running through the end of this month.
Planters opened at the beginning of June and will close at the end of September. While our combine program just opened. As of right now, we are seeing modest improvements in order intake versus the prior year.
Even though the crop care programs are still open, the collective orders for planters, and sprayers are already higher than last year. At this time, results are up mid single digits compared to the completion of last year's program. And we will provide an update next quarter after they have both closed.
Overall, we view the early order program results as an encouraging signal that reinforces our view that 2026 represents the bottom of the agricultural equipment cycle. At the same time, underlying fundamentals continue to support a measured recovery. Rather than a sharp rebound in 2027.
Customer profitability has improved modestly, aided by improved year over year commodity prices, moderation in certain input costs, and favorable livestock fundamentals within mixed farms. Still, the overall market conditions remain challenging. Farm income remains pressured.
And producers continue to navigate uncertainty around input expenses and crop demand. Despite these challenges, the building blocks for recovery continue to strengthen. Replacement demand is elevating as fleet age increases across equipment categories.
We also see encouraging commodity demand signal including record levels of soybean crush, and ethanol production. Which provides strong underlying support for our customers' crops. Combined with healthier dealer inventories, we believe the foundation is in place for a recovery.
So its pace, will ultimately depend on improving farm economics. Supported by higher commodity prices, stability in input costs, and growing renewable fuel demand.
Thanks, Deanna. You cited healthier dealer inventories as a key building block for recovery. You expand on that?
Throughout this downturn, we have remained highly disciplined in balancing production with demand to support channel health. Those proactive decisions have resulted in meaningful improvements across equipment inventories. Within North America, new inventories remain tight.
And well positioned to support customer demand. While late model used inventory continues to improve. The model year distribution of used combines is now in a healthy position.
And model year 2023 and 2024 high horsepower tractors are down nearly 40% from a year ago. Just as importantly, the spread between new and used equipment values has largely normalized. Improving replacement economics and creating a healthier environment for equipment trade cycles.
Taken together, these trends reinforce the progress made across the channel and leave Deere, our dealers, and our customers better positioned for the next phase of the cycle.
Thanks for the additional perspective. Let's pivot to precision ag technology. You talk to us about how customers are using our solutions this season and what we are seeing in adoption trends?
We continue investing through the cycle in technologies that improve customer profitability across market conditions. With a focus on lowering costs increasing productivity, and maximizing yield. Utilization and adoption continue to reinforce the value we bring with our precision technology portfolio.
It also shows the importance of staying committed. Particularly in a challenging farm economy. Customers are using See & Spray on significantly more acres year over year.
While achieving more than 50% herbicide savings. At the same time, current EOP trends suggest factory adoption of See & Spray will nearly double with the technology included on about 1/3 of North American sprayers on order. We also see strong momentum and consistent adoption patterns in our next generation of planter technologies.
You will remember that we launched our industry leading ExactEmerge planters over a decade ago. And are seeing continued pull for this technology. On these planters, customers are choosing even more advanced offerings.
To support input cost savings, productivity, and yield benefits. For model year 2027, we are seeing more than 40% of North American planters including our next generation of advanced offerings, such as ExactRate, ExactShot, and FurrowVision. I would also highlight the continued growth of our digital ecosystem.
And the increasingly important role the John Deere operations center plays in helping customers turn data into better decisions. We now have more than 520 million engaged acres across nearly 1.2 million connected machines. Just as importantly, highly engaged acres have grown to more than 190 million acres.
Representing double digit growth for the year. Through the John Deere operations center, we are turning this growing stream of operational data into actionable insights. That help growers better understand performance across their operations.
We will soon build on that foundation with AI enabled capabilities designed to unlock even more value from the data within operation center. Today, more than 450 thousand unique active, monthly digital users are engaging with our tools. Reinforcing the growing importance of data driven decisions across the farm.
All of this emphasizes our excitement about the value our precision technologies and digital offerings are creating for customers. Especially as farm profitability remains under pressure. With seed, fertilizer, and crop protection products representing roughly 70% of a farmer's operating cost, technologies that help optimize those investments play an increasingly critical role.
When deployed as an integrated system, our precision agriculture solutions can materially improve farm economics. Delivering double digit savings in variable operating costs, and meaningful yield improvement. As input costs rise over time and volatility remains a reality for producers, the opportunity to create value through these technologies will continue to grow as we bring new innovations to market.
Thanks, Deanna. Brent, before we open the line for questions, would you share a few closing thoughts?
Yeah, thanks, Dan. As we wrap up, I wanna take a step back and highlight where we are today, how the business is positioned, and why we remain confident in the opportunities ahead. As we discussed, the agricultural environment remains challenging, but we continue to believe that 2026 represents the bottom of the ag equipment cycle.
While the recovery is likely to be measured and is expected to vary by region, the underlying trends are moving in the right direction. I also wanna recognize the proactive and disciplined actions taken by our employees and our dealers throughout this downturn, of particular note, are the actions taken around inventory management. Those actions have strengthened the channel health have strengthened channel health and better positioned Deere, our dealers, and our customers for the recovery ahead.
At the same time, benefits of Deere's diversified portfolio remain clear. While production in precision agriculture has managed effectively through the trough of the cycle, our construction and forestry business, and our small ag and turf business continue to demonstrate strong performance and profitability. That diversification together with disciplined execution, has enabled Deere to deliver resilient earnings and improve our full year net income and cash flow outlook.
Furthermore, our performance has enabled us to maintain industry leading investment through the cycle solutions that help our customers do more with less. As we look ahead to 2027, Deere is well positioned as it enters the next phase of the cycle. We will start the year with healthy inventory channels, a differentiated portfolio, and a resilient business model.
Most importantly, our team's focus on creating value for customers remains at the center of everything we do and will continue to support long term success for all stakeholders. Thanks, Brent.
We will now open the line for analyst questions. Now we are ready to begin the Q&A portion of the call. The operator will instruct you on the polling procedure.
In consideration of others and to allow more of you to participate in the call, please limit yourself to 1 question. If you have additional questions, we ask that you rejoin the queue. Our first question comes from Jamie Cook from Truist Securities.
Your line is open.
Hi, good morning and congrats on a nice quarter. I guess just my first question just on the setup for 2027. How are we thinking about production versus retail by region?
And then just with regards to the early order program up mid-single-digit, can you just talk about what the pricing expectation are just in 2027 given concerns about inflationary, costs over the past several years on farm equipment. Thank you.
Hey, Jamie. This is Christopher. Thanks for the question.
Maybe I will start first, with the production to retail type environment. I mean, you heard us talk about specifically for PPA and for construction and forestry, you know, modest under production this year. Call it a couple percentage points for each of these segments.
The drivers there, certainly, our shipping plans are set for the full year, and the changes we have seen and South America just drive a little more caution for us in that market. Then on the construction and forestry side of things, you know, the continuous pace and growth in retails and given where we are with our order position being 4 to 5 months out, basically you know, lead to us to a minor level of underproduction in 2026.
Yeah and this is Deanna. From an EOP pricing standpoint, we, of course, rolled that pricing out several months ago as we started our EOP process, and our focus remains on covering inflation with our pricing. And we have done that across the EOP products and also across all of the PPA portfolio as we roll towards 2027.
Thanks for the question, Jamie.
Our next question comes from Tami Zakaria from JPMorgan. Your line is open.
Hey, good morning. Thank you so much. A question on tariffs, wanted to clarify.
I think you expect now $1.1 billion of impact which I think is probably a $100 million lower than what you had anticipated originally. Is that a function of the tariff relief that ag equipment got back in July or is that reflective of some refunds you expect? So can you help us understand what is driving that tariff expectation change?
Yeah, Tami. I can take a shot at that. Yeah.
So the numbers you mentioned, previously, we communicated an annual run rate for fiscal year 2026 of 1.2 billion. That has been updated to $1.1 billion. That excludes any of the positive impacts we have seen from refunds.
Now the driver from 1.2 to $1.1 billion is mainly attributed to the changes in Section 32 tariffs. Remember, previously on imported goods, we had a tariff rate of roughly 25%. That kind of dropped to 15 And given our imports from Europe specifically, that drove that change for the year.
Keep in mind, these changes have been effective June 1st. So the impact we see for this year are 5 out of 12 months. So you can expect another, call it, tailwind for fiscal year 27 as a result of these changes.
Thanks for the question.
Understood. Thank you. And my second question is on your expectation for the excavator launch.
I know it was going to launch. So could you give us some updates on how that is trending and what you are seeing in terms of when the broader adoption would happen?
Hey, Tami. This is Brent. With respect to the excavator launch, we did launch the first models of our excavator, our deer designed excavator earlier this spring, and we are really just in the process of getting those shipments out and getting those into the hands of customers.
I think we have got 3 models in the market today. The feedback we have gotten to date has been very positive. So we are really excited about the impact that will continue to have in 2027.
Keep in mind, our excavator portfolio has a number of models in it that we will begin to roll out again, starting this spring through the next 3 to 4 years. So we are just early days in the release of the deer designed excavators. But, so far, we have had a very positive reception from customers and, we are eager to get to more of these in the hands of or more of these, at the job site here over the coming months.
Thanks, Tami. Great. Thank you.
Our next question comes from Kristen Owen from Oppenheimer. Your line is open.
Just wanted to follow-up on some of the inventory comments and your comments for 2027. I am looking here 3Q, 4Q. I am just wondering, did something slip between those quarters, maybe pushed a little bit into from 4Q?
When I look at your inventory to ratios, it looks like you actually built some tractor inventory and 3Q ahead of the industry. Is that because the demand signals that you are seeing, is that being offset by used and South America? Just want to understand some of that cadence exiting the year.
Thank you.
Hey, Kristen. This is Christopher. I would not read too much into the recent changes here in Q3.
I mean our shipment plans have been largely set for the full year, and we have the orders on hand. And as you have seen, this quarter specifically, we pulled ahead some demand to kind of manage some risk here in Q4, but nothing in particular on the inventory side of things you need to you need to be concerned about. Deanna, anything you would add here?
Yeah. You know, our factories continue to deliver and hit the forecast. And on top of that, as we look at our sold ahead positions and our retail pace across The Americas, continue to be on trend.
With historical averages and have high expectations that we will be able to move through that inventory as expected. And if you remember in North America, we slowly entered 2027 relative to tractor shipments, and so we are making up time, but our retail activity has not missed that pace at all.
Hey. Hey, Kristen. This is Brent.
Just as you think about the 3 Q4 q bridge, maybe a couple of notes. For PPA and, C&F, you know, we would expect a similar, sales level net sales level in the fourth quarter as we saw in the third quarter Now keep in mind, from a margin perspective, we will not get the benefit of refunds in the fourth quarter like we had in the third quarter And then specifically for PPA and SAT, both of those divisions typically have a seasonal high of R&D and SA&G that hit in the fourth quarter as you think about bridging 3Q to 4Q, again, net sales is going to be more or less the same for PPA and C&F. But margins will come in a little bit on PPA and SAT. As you know, they incur a slightly higher load of R&D and SA&G coming out of the year.
Thanks for the question, Kristen.
Our next question comes from Tim Thein from Raymond James. Your line is open.
Hi. So my question is just on the roll that mix could potentially play in thinking about in 2027 Obviously, there are a number of things that go into that, and I assume you wanna stay away from the kind of the forecasting, the different geographic or how the markets play out geographically. But just in the comments alluded to technology, both on the C&F side and then obviously, the strong underlying contribution in the spring early order program in some in terms of the take rates on some of those precision offering.
So and, again, just high level. You know, we had talked about in the years past that you know, maybe a kind of a 2 to 3 point benefit of impact from mix, obviously, when markets were a bit stronger. But this maybe made me want to come back to that, how you are thinking about the potential impact from these higher technology sales and how that could influence that next component in 2027?
Thank you.
Maybe when we when we talk about mix first, I think we need to we need to recognize the industry environment we are in right now. I mean, there is still some uncertainty out there. I mean, you think about agriculture.
You know, obviously, the volatility we have seen in input and commodities, you know, is driving some caution there, but also, you know, some shipment disruption You think about the Black Sea and other things. I mean, we continue to focus on controllables here. Inventory management, Deanna made these comments.
We feel pretty good about that. And, certainly, if you think about other kind of movers here, the recent softness in the EU and Brazil, I mean, we need to see how that kind of plays into 2027. I think it is too early to tell.
As you know, specifically in South America, things can turn quickly. Construction, I mean, we see good fundamentals there. But obviously, depending on the growth there, that could have a mix impact too.
The EOP signals, we see not only the tech adoption there, but also kind of the where they where they sit right now and depending how they wrap up I mean, that will that will drive some mix. You know, will we see some more than a modest recovery here, yes or no? And what will combines do later this year.
So I think it is too early to tell but certainly encouraged by the signals we are seeing right now. Thanks, Timothy.
Our next question comes from Jerry Revich from Wells Fargo. Your line is open.
Yes, hi. Good morning, everyone. I wonder if you could just unpack the comments on the early order program.
Deanna, if you do not mind just commenting on what variability in demand you saw depending on region because it came in, I think, better than most of us expected in aggregate. And, you know, as the early order program eventually winds down the mid-single-digit growth that you are seeing now, I guess, on progress would suggest could wind up in the high single digit range. Can you just comment on the moving pieces there, if you do not mind?
Or around those 2 items?
Yeah, thanks, Jerry. Appreciate the question. And I think dynamic is certainly a part of this as we are still in the middle of these early order programs with, you know, a couple weeks to go on our sprayer.
Early order program and then a little bit longer on our planter EOP. I would say as we look regionally, The US is trending slightly better, than Canada. But remember, in these products, especially planters, Canada is a very limited part of our portfolio.
So we continue to see solid expectations from our customers that they want the latest and greatest technologies and planting and spraying and think some of the best signals that we are seeing is, of course, an increase. We are talking mid single digit. And, you know, we will -- time will tell whether that turns even more positive as we close out the EOP.
But to me, some of the best signals that customers are looking for ways to increase their yields and lower their costs is the technology take rates we are seeing. And seeing a doubling of See & Spray on factory installed sprayer orders and seeing 40% of our planters taking some of the most advanced technologies on planting really gives us confidence that we are headed in the right direction relative to our portfolio and that customers are looking for ways to maximize everything they can going into 27. Thanks for the question, Jerry.
Our next question comes from David Raso from Evercore ISI. Your line is open.
Hi. Thank you. I am curious on the EOP programs.
Given the books have been open for a little while, especially sprayers and then planters opened not too long afterwards, The cadence of the orders being up mid-single-digit. I am just curious, was there anything you can note around has it been maybe some of the recent improvement in grain prices? Was it maybe decisions people were making on technology that the orders were actually up?
You know, a month, month and a half ago. Just curious what you are seeing on that cadence.
Yeah, thanks, David. You know, from a cadence perspective, I would not read much into it. I think we have seen as expected cadence.
We have made some tweaks to our early order program this year, to give dealers more choice as they go through, and, they have come through as expected. I think, again, we are pleasantly surprised with the technology take rates. And, of course, we are hopeful that the mid single digit increase extends well into the year.
Thank you.
Our next question comes from Rob Wertheimer from Melius Research. Your line is open.
Thank you. I had 2, and I will just ask them both at once. Any comments on the 8 series tractor orders?
Is that kind of falling in line with early order programs trending a little bit better? Especially in North America. And then, you know, I am not really sure how to think about Europe The farmer economy is experiencing lots of heat stress and input cost stress.
Of different things. In North America, it seems like if you get a commodity price response, that outweighs everything. Europe's a bit more diverse.
So wonder if you could think you know, comment on anything you can on you know, whether crop prices are starting to reflect some of the stress they are feeling, whether you expect, you know, Europe to react similarly to The US if we do get a proper price response. Thank you.
Yeah. Thanks for the question, Rob. I would say if we if we kind of quickly walk around, you know, some of the geography and starting with your questions on 8R, I would say, you know, 8R orders right now are as expected.
Keep in mind, you know, we have orders kind of being 4 to 5 months out. Our model year 2026 shipment schedule is basically closed. We are kind of collecting Odyssey for the for the first quarter.
I think we are encouraged by the recent changes and development in commodity prices, specifically. I mean, if you look today, I mean, we are talking current futures about 5.05, which is definitely call it, a good signal for a lot of these growers out there. In other geographies, you touched on, you know, Europe a little bit and Brazil.
I mean, in Brazil, we typically take a 3 month order book kind of to manage the volatility in that market. So we have orders for fourth quarter on hand, and you have seen us change our industry guide given the circumstances we see there. But I think it is too early to tell for how we kind of enter 2027.
Certainly, the move financing program Deanna mentioned, you know, at single digit financing rates, Hopefully, that drives some momentum here as we enter 2027. Think in Europe, it is it is a little bit of a mixed picture. You know, that region has a solid small ag and turf, but also PPA, exposure.
You know, certainly, arable farmers are a little more challenged right now, you know, small ag and turf producers still benefiting from dairy and livestock cash flows, which are relatively strong and stable. So more to come on that front. But I would say, overall, order pace is currently as expected, and we have not seen kind of a step up here in the in the last 1 or 2 days or so.
Thanks for the question, Rob.
Our next question comes from Steven Volkmann from Jefferies. Your line is open.
Great. Good morning, guys. Maybe switching back over to CNF.
I am curious, you sort of put some bookend numbers around the earlier program on ag any sense of sort of how the C&F programs are shaping up, and if you can just add in more granularity about how much of that you think is kind of dealer rental fleet loading and sort of the outlook for that theme? Thank you.
Hey, Steven. This is Christopher. For construction forestry, our trends have been very positive.
We have about 4 to 5 months of orders on hand, which is, quite frankly, a little more than we would want to have. Typically, we talk about 2 to 3 months. But, yeah, industry has been growing.
Retails have been growing, and that basically supported our order bank here positively. I would say from if we think about the drivers, you know, certainly, large infrastructure projects and data center starts and, you know, our participation in the independent rental channel as well since we kind of work with these players in there. But also the opportunity we have on dealer owned rental fleet.
I think that is all driving momentum. As we enter 2027, keep in mind, I talked about that setup for the underproduction. So that will give us a little bit of an opportunity as well So I think we feel good about, you know, the current situation here in CNF.
Super. Thank you.
Our next question comes from Steven Fisher from UBS. Your line is open.
Great. Thanks. Congrats on the good execution in a challenging environment.
Just maybe to clarify the tariff dynamics. You mentioned there is still some benefit from February to come in 2027 because it is only really kind of a half year of benefit this year. And It sounds like you have no other refunds embedded in Q4.
So really just trying to think about when all is said and done and comparing 2026 to 2027, you know, is that 8 roughly 800 million net impact that you have this year And if all else were to be equal, would that be a headwind going into next year or a tailwind or neutral? I know all else is not gonna be equal because you already have sounds like, some higher plans in large I. But just kind of curious trying to think about headwind or tailwind on that net tariff impact for 2027?
Steven, this is Brent. As you think about our tariff expense this year versus next year, net tariffs, so direct tariffs paid less any refunds will be a headwind going into next year. We will end up paying about $1.1 billion in direct tariffs this year less $382 million of refunds.
So our net tariff exposure this year is approximately 57 ish. Going into next year, we would expect a run rate that is going to be closer to, or right around 1 billion for the year. So there will be a there will be a bit of a step up.
In our tariff expense next year as we compare it to this year. Thank you very much. Thanks, Steven.
Our next question comes from Chad Dillard from Bernstein.
Hey, good morning, everyone. So a couple of quick questions for you on C&F. First of just on pricing. Looks like the guidance implies a kind of 50-basis point positive price versus plus 8% in the third quarter.
So I just want to understand some of the moving dynamics behind that. And then the second question is maybe a bigger-picture 1 on rental, and I am talking about Deers, you know, dealer rental aspirations. I guess, like, are you guys thinking about the size you want to grow?
And then maybe just give a rough sense for you know, how you are thinking that changes the, the economics of the business.
Gotcha. You were cutting out a little bit, but I think the first part of the question was related to pricing in C&F and what we expect. Maybe to give you a little bit of a run up there.
I mean, we had we started the year, you know, with 2.5 percent, you know, and then basically with 3 we kind of rounded it down to 2.5. Now we are back up at full year guide. The quarter came in pretty good, I mean, at 8%.
There was, quite frankly, 1 part was an easy comps compared to last year. Keep in mind, you know, Q3 in 2025, we had about 5% negative price in C&F, which was the result of some of the incentives we deployed in the market you know, given the competitive environment at that point. So pretty good quarter there, but I think in Q4, I mean, you have seen the guide.
We have the orders on hand there. Nothing outsized there from a year over year comps perspective. So pricing right now is going well in C&F. Road building certainly contributes to that as well.
Too, you know, given our position there, but we feel good about the pricing there.
Hey, Chad. With respect to rental, we think there is an opportunity to further increase our exposure there. We participate both through our sales to the independent rental houses, also our dealers, participate in that market, as well.
We have seen rental just grow as a percentage of the overall earthmoving business. You know, today, anywhere from 30% to 35% of, you know, earthmoving transactions start as a rental. And we continue to see that grow.
So in part, you know, our dealer owned rental fleets have grown just as the market has grown. And then it and then on top of that, we have also seen an increased appetite for, some of them to invest in expanding their rental fleet and serving their customers even more in that space. So we think there is a meaningful opportunity to come, it could help boost a little bit of the inventory fill that is to happen next year.
So we will wait and see to see how that progresses going into 2027. Thanks, Chad. Thank you.
Our next question comes from Angel Castillo from Morgan Stanley. Your line is open.
Hi, thanks for taking my question. Just wanted to go back to the EOP I think there was a comment about pricing covering inflation. And I am just I guess, I am trying to understand, first, could you comment on some of the any incentive merchandising incentives you might be doing?
And just what does the implication of that and any kind of pricing trends that you are seeing in your EOPs on margins as we go into next year? Just meaning all else equal, I guess, is your backlog implying margins up down, neutral? Any kind of directional commentary there?
Then maybe a little bit of a bigger picture question. On the FTC settlement, could you comment on that? Just the right to repair issue and just what any, implications that might have on related to life cycle parts over the next 5 years?
Yeah. Angel, I start. Thanks for the thanks for the question related to EOP pricing.
I think there is there is 2 components of that. Right? So 1, overall, you know, we are we are taking inflationary price, you know, in a in a in a very rather challenging environment right now for many of our producers, so we are taking a measured approach there.
But, you know, we are we are committed to cover inflation here over time. So nothing outsized there from a pricing perspective. And keep in mind, you know, we have several points in time in the year where we take pricing, whether it is attractive or order book, whether it is, you know, our combined EOP, but it is a composition of a few different decision points during the year.
Now the inflationary environment, think I do not need to tell you that. it is dynamic right now. You think about oil prices, how they move and what that means. And also from a from a tariff perspective, you know, suppliers experiencing tariffs too, you know, they pass that on to us.
And negotiate with us around these. So still, I would call it a dynamic inflationary environment, but we are kind of committed to cover that.
And, Angel, hey. This is Brent. As it relates to our life cycle solutions business, you know, what I would say is first and foremost, you know, John Deere has always supported our customer's ability to repair their own equipment or, themselves or use whatever third party they trust the most.
And so that has not changed. At all. I think the agreement does formalize, some of the products and tools that we have and offer to the market, and we think are industry leading.
You know, in particular, you know, John Deere Operations Center, ProService, enables our customers, if they choose to, you know, have access to diagnostic tools, digital manuals, and maybe most importantly, be able to do software updates on their own. Or, through independent service advisers that they like. And so we think this is industry leading.
I think the agreement, you know, helps formalize, some of the things that, you know, support our principles of, you know, allowing our customers the ability to maintain their own equipment, and we are really, pleased with the tools that we have out there. And, again, we think they are industry leading. So I think it will help support long term our aspirations and our life cycle solutions business overall.
Thanks for the question, Angel. Very helpful. Thank you.
Our next question comes from Mig Dobre from Baird. Your line is open.
Hey, thanks guys. This is Peter Kalo carrying on for Mig this morning. Thank you for taking my question.
I actually have a quick 1 here on Europe. Given the cap budget change that is set to policy change that is set to take place in 28, Do you think there is a chance that we see demand being pulled forward here in 2027? Are your dealers maybe giving you any indication that might be the case?
Or perhaps the opposite where we might actually see farmers delay purchases in Europe until there is some certainty with the new policy in 2028. Just any color on what you are seeing in Europe would be great. And if you are willing, and I understand that it is early, to provide any directional forecast for that market in 2027.
That would also be great.
Yeah. I think I think the short answer is probably it is it is too early to tell right now. I think Europe the environment over there, you know, yes, there is there is also some policy movement going on there.
But, again, you know, we typically have an order book which is 4 to 5 months out. So kind of just starting collecting orders for Q1. You know, I talked about the difference in the arable segment and, you know, between dairy and livestock producers.
So certainly, you know, when it comes to their to their next year's crop, you know, we need to see where input costs are, you know, how commodity prices continue to trend, and that will probably you know, shape sentiment here for PPA. And the arable crop producers in Europe. I think, you know, on dairy and livestock, it looks fairly stable right now.
We feel good. But, again, too early to tell, you know, whether policy impact will pull demand forward or kind of delay it. Thanks for the question.
I appreciate it. Maybe we have time for 1 more question here.
Our last question comes from Sabahat Khan from RBC Capital Markets. Your line is open.
Great. Thanks and good morning. Just a quick 1.
I guess just based on the current outlook, what you are seeing in the EOPs, obviously the input costs are a big factor in the farmer decisions. You just share some early commentary on kind of the positioning the Brazilian farmers are taking and what the U.S. farmers are thinking from what you are hearing on how the input cost may trend and that ultimately affecting sort of the crop and their decision. Anything sort of hearing in those 2 markets?
Thanks.
Yeah. Thanks for the question. Certainly, there is uncertainty around input prices no matter where in the world you are farming.
Certainly, the impact of fertilizer is different for a Brazilian farmer than it is for a US farmer. But I would tell you that markets are reacting, and farmers are looking for alternatives. Alternatives might be in the types of products they are applying, the amount they are applying, or even at the broader scale, how markets are serving through alternative sources.
So, you know, overall, I would say farmers continue to remain resilient as they think about fertilizer, not necessarily seeing a huge reduction in what farmers are intending to apply? And, you know, they are out looking for yield just as much as they were prior to these fertilizer challenges. Certainly, farmers are keeping an open mind and considering how they might book future years.
As we look at some of our larger farmers, they have got multiple years of inputs contracted. So they are also considering how they might change that going forward. But overall, I think markets are reacting.
Farmers are staying nimble in considering how they might adjust their portfolios, but they still remain focused on driving yield and getting the best outcome they can.
that is all the time we have. We appreciate everyone's time, and thanks for joining us today. That concludes today's conference.
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