Hello, and welcome to Newmont's Third Quarter 26 Results Conference Call. All participants will be in listen-only mode. After today's presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions.
Please note, this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Newmont's Group Head of Treasury and Investor Relations Neil Backhouse. Please go ahead.
Thank you, Rebecca. Hello, everyone, and thank you for joining Newmont's third quarter 26 earnings call. Joining me today are Natascha Viljoen, our President and Chief Executive Officer; Brian Tabolt, our executive vice president and chief financial officer, as well as other members of our management team who will be available to answer questions at the end of the call.
Before we begin, please take a moment to review our cautionary statement shown here. And refer to our SEC filings, which can be found on our website. With that, I will turn the call over to Natascha.
Thank you, Neil, and hello, everyone. Newmont delivered a stable third quarter demonstrating the quality, resilience and value generation of our world class portfolio. Robust safety and operational performance, disciplined cost management and higher silver production with realized prices enabled us to improve our full year cost guidance, while remaining firmly on track to achieve our production, capital and other guidance metrics.
I want to start with our operational performance. In the third quarter, Newmont safely produced approximately 1.3 million ounces of gold. 23 thousand tons of copper and a notable 11 million ounces of silver, As we indicated last quarter, gold production was broadly in line with the second quarter and reflected strong execution across the portfolio. This operational performance translated into strong financial results, including $1.9 billion of free cash flow, and an adjusted net income of $2.20 per share, representing a third quarter record.
This strong cash generation continues to support our balanced approach to capital allocation. Since our last earnings call, we have returned approximately $1.9 billion to shareholders, through our quarterly dividend and ongoing share repurchases. I am also pleased to share that we have now repurchased more than 115 million shares representing approximately 10% of shares outstanding, since launching the repurchase program in February 2024.
Beyond our safe operational and financial performance, we achieved several important milestones this quarter. First, we announced an amended joint venture agreement from Nevada Gold Mines under which the previously excluded Fourmile, Fiber Line and Myke properties will be contributed. We are very pleased with the outcome of this agreement which aligns the interest of both partners and positions us to maximize the value of 1 of the world's premier gold districts.
We continue to work collaboratively with our partner and expect to close the transaction during the fourth quarter. At Lihir, we safely completed the planned September shutdown on schedule and according to plan. We continue to expect higher grade ore in the fourth quarter, as planned And finally, at Red Chris, we are finalizing the feasibility study for the block Cave project and continue to advance toward a full funds decision early next year.
And I will provide more detail a little bit later. As we move beyond the production trough, previously indicated for 2026 we expect production growth to begin in 2027 Looking further ahead, our portfolio of operating assets projects in execution and future development opportunities position Newmont to grow and sustain production for decades to come. Supporting both our near term production growth and longer term outlook, is the progress we continue to make advancing our projects across the portfolio.
In the third quarter, we continued to advance our development pipeline, achieving key milestones across multiple projects. Most notably at the second expansion at Tanami we have now completed construction on the 1.5-kilometer shaft. We remain on track for full mechanical completion by the end of this year and our focus will shift towards commissioning as we move into 2027.
We now expect commercial production by the end of the second quarter of 2027, Earlier than previously anticipated. With ramp up activities continuing to the end of the year. At Kaidia PC2-3, we remain on track for completion by the end of this year with the final draw bell fired in September.
This represents an important milestone as we begin transitioning activities from the project teams to operations. At PC1-2, cave establishment activity continue to advance on schedule. And we are pleased to report that the key regulatory approvals and associated requirements following the April seismic event have been achieved.
Allowing the project to continue advancing toward cave establishment. The 2 water treatment plants at Yanacocha are progressing well and are approaching mechanical completion with commissioning activities underway. As these projects advance toward completion in 2027, closure spending is expected to be approximately $200 million lower in 2027 and $400 million lower in 2028, compared with 2026 levels.
As this cash flow becomes available, it will be reallocated to growth. Partially offsetting an increase in development capital as we continue to invest in future projects and opportunities across our portfolio that generates the highest returns. These project milestones reinforce our confidence in Newmont's proven ability to execute large complex projects across jurisdictions safely responsibly, and on schedule.
With this capability and confidence, we are advancing the Red Chris block cave project. A fully permitted shovel ready gold copper development in British Columbia's Golden Triangle. And the next major reinvestment in our business, directly supporting our strategy to lead in gold and grow in copper.
With the full funds decision anticipated early next year, Red Chris is positioned to deliver long term production in 1 of the industry's premier mining jurisdictions. Red Chris is a multi phase project. Anchored by an endowment that supports a 70-year mine life.
It represents a rare combination of scale, quality and growth. Located within a highly prospective porphyry district. With all our regulatory and consent and approvals already in place, it benefits from strong partnerships with the Tahltan Nation and support from both provincial and federal governments.
Demonstrated by the Government of Canada's announcement of C$500 million of funding for the project. Recognizing its importance to Canada's critical mineral strategy. This established support creates a stable and predictable environment for investment and reinforces our confidence in the long term opportunity at Red Chris and the broader Golden Triangle.
The block cave development will leverage Newmont's extensive experience developing and operating large scale block cave mines, supported by an established team with over 150 years of combined Block Cave experience. it is important to note that while the initial phase, MacroBlock 1-2, represents less than 20% of potential mine life at Red Chris, approximately 40% of the planned investment in processing facilities material handling systems and other key infrastructure is expected to support future expansions. This foundation positions Red Chris to evolve into an increasingly meaningful contributor to Newmont's future production profile. And a significant driver of shareholder value over time.
We continue to refine and validate the underlying assumptions and execution plan with a clear focus on ensuring the rigorous Block Cave project meets our investment criteria and project execution standards. While final review on governance work remain underway, I am encouraged by the project economics and the value this operation can create for Newmont. We have completed a rigorous feasibility study and advanced engineering beyond 60% resulting in an optimized mine design that improves metal recovery and incorporates geotechnical learnings execution and long term operational experience into our plan.
Based on results from the feasibility study and subject to board approval construction for the project is anticipated to ramp up in 2027, with commercial production targeted for 2033. This builds upon the early works that have already advanced the mine decline, conveyor to surface decline and ventilation raise boring. The initial development is expected to support a mine life of approximately 13 years, producing approximately 3 million ounces of gold and 850 thousand tonnes of copper on a 100% basis over this period.
Following ramp up, we expect Red Chris to produce an estimated 275 to 325 thousand ounces of gold annually. Along with 65 to 85 thousand tons of copper per year, highlighting the quality of the initial cave. We currently estimate development capital to be between US$4.2 billion and US$4.8 billion which is equivalent to US$5.6 billion and C$6.4 billion on a 100% basis.
And includes the benefit from the anticipated grant from the Canadian government. This estimate reflects the lightest development plan updated productivity assumptions, current market inputs and a mature understanding of the infrastructure, development sequence capital requirements and operating profile required to successfully deliver the project. Supported by a robust technical plan and refined execution strategy, we believe Red Chris is well positioned to meet our investment criteria.
As we move towards a final investment decision, I want to spend a moment to reflect on the principles that will guide that decision. Regardless of the source of growth, we are advancing the next phase of an existing operation, evaluating an organic development project, or assessing any potential inorganic opportunity, every investment must compete for capital and satisfy 3 core criteria. First, the opportunity must be a strategic fit for Newmont.
We prioritize investments that reinforce our position as the world's leading gold company while supporting organic growth in copper. We look for opportunities that strengthen our presence in attractive mining jurisdictions and leverage our deep technical expertise capabilities, extensive infrastructure and established partner relationships. Secondly, we invest.
The investment must ensure the quality of the portfolio. We focus on opportunities that support durable production profiles. Typically with mine lives of 10 years or more.
Improve free cash flow generation, increase resilience through the commodity cycles and strengthen the portfolio's overall cost competitiveness. And finally, the economics must be compelling and supported by a high degree of technical maturity, project execution capability, and a clear development plan. We expect projects to remain competitive across a range of planning assumptions.
And commodity price environments, while generating a double digit internal rate of return. That exceeds the applicable country specific discount rate. The initial phase at Red Chris is an example of this approach in action.
It aligns with our strategy enhances the quality and longevity of our portfolio and delivers compelling returns. While meeting the same rigorous standards we apply to every investment before capital is allocated. With that, I will turn it over to Brian for an update on our third quarter financial performance and outlook for the rest of the year.
Thank you, Natascha, and hello, everyone. Newmont delivered another quarter of robust financial results. Supported by stable operational performance, disciplined cost management, and continued execution across our portfolio.
We realized an average gold price of $4.32 thousand per ounce, generated $2.8 billion of cash flow from operations after working capital, and delivered $1.9 billion of free cash flow. Through the first 9 months of the year, we have generated $7.3 billion of free cash flow. Which is approximately the total amount generated in 2025, and with our strongest production quarter yet to come.
Reflecting our continued ability to convert strong operational execution into meaningful cash generation and shareholder value. This strong cash flow continues to underpin our capital allocation framework, enabling us to return more than 80% of free cash flow to shareholders year to date. While making meaningful reinvestment back into the business and maintaining a strong balance sheet.
For the quarter, we also generated $4 billion of adjusted EBITDA and reported adjusted net income of $2.20 per share. As we noted on our last call, the working capital benefit realized in second quarter partially unwound during the third quarter, reflecting normal timing related working capital movements across the business. Turning to costs.
Gold all in sustaining costs were $1.45 thousand per ounce on a byproduct basis. Unit costs improved sequentially from the second quarter, primarily reflecting higher gold and co product volumes, including 11 million ounces of silver production stronger realized copper prices, and lower operating costs at certain operations across the portfolio. Turning now to our capital allocation priorities.
We continue to apply the capital allocation framework introduced earlier this year balancing reinvestment in our world class portfolio, financial flexibility, and the return of excess cash to shareholders. Beginning with sustaining capital, we spent $525 million in the third quarter as we continue to reinvest in the business to support safe production, and sustainable free cash flow generation. Turning to our sustainable cash dividend.
Our framework targets an annual cash dividend of approximately $1.1 billion paid quarterly and in the third quarter, declared a dividend of $0.26 per share. We also continue to invest in development capital spending $354 million to advance the highest return opportunities, within our deep organic growth pipeline. At the same time, we remain committed to maintaining a flexible and resilient balance sheet.
Anchored by our net cash target of $1 billion, plus or minus $2 billion. This range provides the flexibility to manage through commodity price cycles while continuing to invest in the business return capital to shareholders. We ended the quarter with a net cash balance of $3.2 billion which is modestly above the upper end of our target range. it is important to note that this balance does not yet reflect the $1.95 billion payment associated with the amended Nevada Gold Mines joint venture agreement.
Which we expect to close in the fourth quarter. And finally, once these priorities have been met, excess cash is allocated to ongoing share repurchases. Since our last earnings call, we have repurchased approximately $1.6 billion of shares under the $6 billion share repurchase program authorized by the board in April.
This includes more than $450 million of shares repurchased in October to date, leaving approximately $2.8 billion remaining under the current authorization. Our approach to repurchasing shares over time is already having a meaningful impact. And as Natascha mentioned earlier, since we began executing our repurchase programs in February 2024, we have reduced our share count by more than 115 million shares, approximately 10% of shares outstanding.
And as I mentioned last quarter, based on the repurchases completed to date, the formula under our framework would support a quarterly dividend of $0.27 per share at the next annual review. While maintaining the same targeted annual cash commitment. Any increase would remain subject to approval and declaration by the board as part of its annual review next February, but we continue to execute the program consistently.
Reflecting our conviction that Newmont's shares continue to represent an attractive long term investment opportunity. Turning to guidance. As we look to the remainder of 2026, we remain well on track to achieve our full year production guidance.
Production is expected to increase in the fourth quarter to 1.4 million ounces, making it our strongest quarter of the year driven primarily by 4 of our managed operations. At Tanami, as we begin to access higher grade stopes, at Cerro Negro, the start of mining at the vein zone open pit as well as continued productivity improvements and recoveries. At Ahafo North, as the operation continues to ramp up to full production rates, and at Lihir, as we begin to access higher grade ore as planned following the September maintenance shutdown.
I do want to call out that while we continue to expect Lihir to be a strong contributor in the fourth quarter, we are closely monitoring potential water impacts as a result of El Nino conditions, which are forecast to strengthen through November and December, before beginning to ease in the first quarter of next year. We are actively managing the operation with these conditions in mind and working to mitigate with water conservation efforts. Though the timing and severity of weather impacts could influence production, and costs during the quarter Turning to costs.
Continued operational execution, disciplined cost management, and stronger realized prices for copper, silver, and other co products have enabled us to improve our full year cost outlook and now expect gold all-in sustaining costs of approximately $1.52 thousand per ounce, representing an improvement of approximately 10% relative to the guidance we provided at the beginning of the year. While we continue to expect fourth quarter all-in sustaining costs to be the highest of the year at $1.9 thousand per ounce, Our improved full year outlook reflects the strength of our year to date performance. And provides increased confidence in our ability to manage costs within our control.
The fourth quarter cost profile primarily reflects the planned timing of sustaining capital spend, lower co product credits as silver production at Penasquito declines to approximately half of third quarter levels and ongoing inflationary pressures. Including fuel-related impacts. With these evolving fuel-related considerations, we have enhanced our oil price sensitivity disclosure which can be found in the appendix of our presentation.
In addition to the approximate $60 million impact from direct fuel consumption, we estimate a further additional approximate $50 million impact that key consumables input and inputs for every $10 per barrel change in oil prices. Providing a more comprehensive view of the potential cost impacts across our business. Finally, sustaining and development capital are expected to be the highest in the fourth quarter, keeping us on track to achieve our full year capital guidance expectations.
Looking beyond the current year, we expect total portfolio production in 2027 to increase by a low to mid single digit percentage compared with 2026. Within our managed portfolio, the principal drivers include higher grade at Lihir and Boddington, supported by planned mine sequencing and the completion of the waste stripping campaign at Boddington this year. Additional ounces from Tanami with a second expansion progressing well toward commercial production incremental ounces at Cerro Negro through the introduction of ore feed from the Vein Zone open pit, and at Yanacocha, continued operational success is supporting the evaluation of additional low cost ounces in 2027 and potentially beyond.
Together, these contributions provide a clear line of sight to production growth beginning in 2027. Shifting to costs. The fourth quarter profile provides an early indication of several external factors that we continue to monitor and are currently expecting to carry into next year.
Ultimately impacting our anticipated 2027 cost estimates. Based on current conditions, we anticipate unit costs to trend higher next year reflecting macroeconomic headwinds and lower co product credits. Primarily from reduced silver production at Penasquito where output is expected to be roughly 30% lower than 2026 levels due to planned mine sequencing.
While these factors create a more challenging cost environment, we remain focused on rigorous cost discipline productivity improvements, and performance excellence across the business. Ensuring we continue to actively manage the costs that are within our control. Looking at capital investment for next year, sustaining capital is expected to remain largely in line with 2026 levels, as we continue investing in the long term reliability and performance of our world class portfolio of operations.
We now expect development capital in 2027 to be approximately $500 million higher than 2026, primarily reflecting planned investment in the Red Chris Block Cave project subject to board approval. And continued advancement of the Lihir nearshore barrier project. Importantly, as Natascha mentioned, approximately $200 million of the increase in development capital spend in 2027 is expected to be offset by cash flow becoming available as spending on the Yanacocha water treatment plants declines.
As the project reaches completion, this benefit is expected to increase to approximately $400 million annually beginning in 2028. Taken together, these preliminary indications reflect the portfolio positioned for a return to growth in 2027. Supported by continued operating discipline and selective investment in our highest return opportunities.
With that, I will turn the call back to Natascha for closing remarks.
Thank you, Brian. In closing, our third quarter results demonstrate the strength of Newmont's world class portfolio and the consistency of execution across our business. We remain firmly on track to achieve our 2026 production, capital, and improved cost guidance supported by strong operational performance disciplined cost management and continued free cash flow generation.
The strength of our portfolio allows us to simultaneously reinvest in the business maintain a resilient balance sheet and return significant capital to shareholders through our capital allocation framework which continues to delivering value through a predictable dividend and ongoing share repurchases. Looking ahead, we are entering an exciting period for Newmont, with a clear strategy leading in gold and growing in copper. Supported by our world class portfolio, deep technical expertise and proven project delivery capabilities we are well positioned to deliver production growth beginning in 2027.
Generate substantial free cash flow create additional scale for decades to come and continue increasing value for shareholders on a per share basis. And with that, we look forward to your questions.
We will now begin the question and answer session. We ask that you please limit inquiries to 1 primary question and 1 follow-up question. If you would like to ask a question, please press *1 to raise your hand.
If you are using a speakerphone, please pick up your handset before pressing the keys. To withdraw your question, press *1 again. At this time, we will pause to assemble our roster.
Your first question comes from Daniel Major with UBS. Daniel, please go ahead.
Hi. Natascha, Brian, and congratulations. A good set of numbers and no curveballs from the 2027 guidance that I can see.
But yes, I guess the first 1, just looking at the Red Chris project and the preliminary details that you have given. Can you provide us a little bit more detail on the scope changes that you talked to as sort of the first part? And then secondly, you talked to this as being the first sort of phase that is the foundation for further expansions.
Can you also just provide a little bit more color about what that would kind of entail and the potential time frame around that.
Thank you, Daniel, and some really good questions. So I think it is firstly important to recognize that this project now is for the first time on a technical and commercial level fully at a full feasibility study level. So as we think about scope changes, it is important to also think about the technical executability and long term sustainability of the project.
So the scope changes certainly included our in increase and improved understanding of geotechnical realities. It allowed us to make sure that the positioning and the design of the cave plus the operational infrastructure and materials handling is appropriately positioned. In areas that can be supported in the long term and that does allow for long term productivity in high levels of productivity to support the low cost expectations of this project.
Secondly, we see increased throughput through the plant that allows for higher yearly plant throughputs. And then as associated with the right tailings capacity. So those are the major changes.
We have been also made sure that from a project execution point of view, that we reflect current and demonstrated development performance as well as really current rates for that development. Then if we look at the future of this endowment, Daniel, On slide 5, you will see that we have clearly marked out the first macro block 1 and 2. My apologies.
I think it might be slide 6. For Eddie, slide 5. I thought I had the wrong number here for a minute.
I want you to firstly look at both the, east and west expansion of the orebody, and you will see that macro block 1 and 2 is positioned in a very small portion of what we currently see as our endowment. Our endowment includes everything from our East Ridge to the Far West and does not include any exploration potential. Further to the East and the West as this body.
Ore body is still open to the East and the West. So the 70 years that we are talking about is within the context of what you can see on this slide. The next expansion would be logical to go into M B 3 and then East Ridge after that.
Those development. Project development evaluations is under as we speak. And as we bring them to a more mature phase, we will certainly be able to share more information.
I might just add and remind you. That 40% of the capital that we are spending now will be capital that would be appropriate for further extensions into MacroBlock 3 and East Ridge.
Okay. Thanks. Sorry, just to clarify on that.
When you say 40% of capital, do you mean mine development capital rather than surface infrastructure?
No. It would be between surface infrastructure and underground handling infrastructure that would be reused for future expansions.
Okay. that is clear. Thank you. And then second question, and thanks for the color on the drivers of the sort of production into next year.
You provide a bit more color on the expectations around Yanacocha? Obviously, production is coming off, but it appears that is continued to contribute more than you previously guided. Can you give us some just an update on how you see that both? 2027 and beyond?
Daniel, firstly, I think it is important to bring us back to the asset reviews that we have done that allowed us to stand back and unconstrained look at every asset. Yanacocha has benefited from that process. In that as we. had an unconstrained view on the potential of the asset, definitely supported by a change in gold price assumptions.
And then aligning with our near to. Near term to brownfield opportunities, looking for low capital near term projects that can increase our production. Also important, we always look at natural constraints in the value drivers in the system.
So typically looking at tailings dams, and process capacity. In this case, it would be heap leach capacity. So really optimizing what we have in terms of heap leach capacity no material capital investment, opened up additional opportunities in the open pit that we will be exploring.
To extend the life of that asset. Great.
Thanks very much. Next question comes from the line of Fahad Tariq with Jefferies. Please go ahead.
Hi. Thanks for taking my question. I wanted to ask a little bit more about the indirect impact of the oil prices, and thanks for providing that sensitivity.
Can you just clarify whether that includes any impact on labor cost inflation? Thanks.
Yeah. Hi. Hi, Fahad.
No. It does not. The primary impact is with the indirect impacts that we have incorporated in that $50 million is associated with chemicals, explosives, grinding media, fixed plant, a bit of the contracted services in terms of how those dynamics flow through contracted services.
But in terms of the primary employee base, that is not included as part of the labor assumption.
Okay. And then just my follow-up question. What are you seeing in terms of labor cost inflation?
And if you can maybe speak to we have heard about labor market tightness, particularly in Nevada and Western Australia. Maybe just comment on what you are seeing there in terms of availability. Thanks.
Yeah. I mean, I think in terms of labor cost assumption, we are looking at a general escalation across the organization that will exceed our 2026 assumption, which was about 3%. So I think that is probably a good place to start grounding in terms of just general costs in terms of inflationary pressures and I think a lot of us are all monitoring the general cost environment And I think a recognition in showing the indirect impacts of oil is a bit of a recognition that we are seeing a bit more of that stickiness associated with diesel prices and not just the oil price, but also the crack spread in terms of how that is impacting diesel and how that is flowing through the inflationary dynamic with across the economy.
I think also with regards to costs, there are other dynamics that we are monitoring as it relates to the Australian dollar. And the continued royalty sensitivity is driven by gold price. But in terms of labor cost itself, I think that the indicator right now would be that more general inflationary environment.
And we are continuing to monitor it Natascha, I do not know if anything additionally you might add in terms of availability of labor across the business?
Thanks, Brian. Fahad, generally, we know that there is always looking for technical capabilities. So technical capability is certainly the first area that we always very careful around talent management and attracting and retention of good technical capability.
If I look at across our business, our labor turnover is within good control. And we do not, by and large, see any major labor shortages. Great.
Thanks, Fahad. Your next question comes from the line of Richard Garchitorena with Barclays. Please go ahead.
Great. Thanks, everybody. My first question is on the Tanami T2 completion in the first half of next year now expected.
I am just wondering how you expect that to impact sort of cash cost through the 27? And how should we think about that benefiting 2027, 2028?
Thank you, Richard, and a really good question. We are really pleased with the progress that the team has made at. And completing the shaft and the infrastructure around the shaft.
As we go into commercial production, next year, we will start to see opportunities to open up and develop the areas at depth. It will have a material positive impact in our ability to move ore out of underground. As we ramp up 27, we could expect to see Tanami going back to previous performance into 2028.
I think it is important We will definitely start to see an impact immediately, but we will see the full impact as we ramp that asset back up to expected production.
And Richard, I might just add to Natascha's comments as it relates to cash costs. We are not we are not in a position at this point to provide cost. Site level cost guidance, but I would direct you to the general macro macroeconomic comments that I had both in the prepared remarks as well as the previous response.
Yeah. I think that is important. We have been net of Right.
Macroeconomic, but certainly from a productivity point of view, we will see that come through.
Thanks for that color. Thank you. And then on Red Chris, the CapEx guidance can you talk about how we should think about that flowing through over the next 6 years of development?
I know you raised your CapEx. Development CapEx expectations for 2027 by $500 million How much is Red Chris a part of that? And then will it be fairly linear as you develop the mine, or is it more lumpy?
To go for? Thanks, Richard. I think firstly, 50% of the expected increase is associated with Red Chris.
We certainly have other projects like our Lihir nearshore barrier that is also included in that capital increase, which is also really value project for us. Until we give improve. More color around the project, assuming FID early next year, I think it is safe for you to see.
Assume a linear spend profile. But, certainly, we will be able to give you more color more color with FID in February.
Thank you. Your next question comes from Tanya Jakusconek with Scotiabank. Please go ahead.
Oh, great. Good evening. Thank you so much for taking my questions.
Natascha, just wanted to come back to Red Chris and trying to reconcile some of the differences of the Newcrest pre-feasibility pre-feasibility and your feasibility study. I am just trying to understand, you said that the processing facility is larger. Can you remind me what size you are thinking?
And how much larger that was with Newcrest? And, also, when you think about the ore body, itself, are you looking at more caves than they originally had anticipated? Just trying to figure out discrepancy between the 2 capitals.
Yes. Tanya, I will probably touch on a couple of things, and thank you for that question because I think that is probably top of mind. Firstly, you have pointed out that the numbers that the numbers that is available was prefeasibility study, and this is now a fully, really well developed pre full feasibility study with at least 60% of engineering completed.
We have, in some of our packages, much higher levels of engineering completed. I think firstly, important learnings for us is, as I think, between 2021, 2022, and where we are today. The first learning was certainly around the geotechnical realities around that ore body.
We have been able to improve our understanding of the geotech that has resulted in changing-- quite material changes in support, underground support, also major cavities, the support for major cavities. It allowed us to reorientate the cave. The cave is now larger, and it is also orientated to prevent any intersection with major fault lines.
We have been thoughtful on where we position underground infrastructure, both in terms of materials handling material, broader materials handling, to ensure that it is in more competent areas in the in underground. actually ensuring for long term sustainability of the use of that infrastructure. So if you just look at what to ensure a stable infrastructure underground in a cave that is not impacted by geotechnical structures. That would certainly be the first element.
The second element is we will go from 9 million tonnes per year to 15 million tonnes per year. In the processing plant, and that has not been. That was not part of the original study.
I think the last element that I will touch on as 3 main elements, is we have now got proven development rates as well as cost to ensure that as we think about our capital estimates, that we have financial and cost. And the financials and cost assumptions robust. As we have developed that the economics around the project.
If I was to think of those 3 points, that you mentioned, so all of the geotech, 1 of the larger processing facility, And then thirdly, on the inflation -- I guess I will say inflation, like, the. that is the present day costing versus I think, it is about 6 years old or thereabout. I forget how long ago that was, 5, 6 years. How would you take that?
Like, would you say it is a third each, or how would you take these 3 categories and allocate the discrepancy?
I think what I Tanya, the. I think the level of detail that we can give you at this stage, I am gonna limit it to that because we continue to. And as we said in the prepared remarks, we continue to ensure that we understand that we have reviewed our underlying assumptions.
We are currently going through our technical review our financial review, and when we get it through to a FID, we will be able to give you more detail.
Okay. And any change in the ore body? Like, when you looked at it from a caving standpoint, besides, you know, the geotechnicals, or did you extend additional caves beyond what they what they had?
No. I think the caves, the major change is the orientation of macro block 1. And then as we continue the work on the extended ore body, we will continue to develop our thinking there.
Your next question comes from the line of Hugo Nicolaci with Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.
Oh, hi, Natascha and team. Congrats on continuing to deliver in a not so easy operating environment. Firstly, on Lihir, I just wanted to dig into your comments on the potential for an El Nino impact to water availability at site.
In the release, you talk about the potential risks in the fourth quarter this year. But can you just give me more detail around where you see the potential for water availability into next year? Just given the year is 1 of the key drivers of production growth and what you are doing to mitigate that risk there?
Yeah and thank you. And hello, Hugo. A really good question.
So firstly, important to note that we have not been impacted yet. It is something that we are closely monitoring due to just our normal water storage areas. I think it is important to note that we.
The expected El Nino to increase and get harsher towards the end of the year. and we will see less of that, but going into the new year. A couple of priorities for us here. Firstly, on the Lihir Island, the communities are reliant on us for water distribution.
So that will be, without a doubt, our first priority. Secondly, not all of our operation will be impacted. By water shortage if we get there.
We will be able to continue to mine and stockpile material that will enable us to continue to build stockpile, do blending, and be ready for a consistent and blended feed into the plant. The team is also looking at if we. if that is the case, that we can bring maintenance forward from next year to allow us then to run more consistently. So my view on this is normally when you lose volume.
When you lose mining, that is hard to catch up. But as long as mining is done and we get that onto stockpiles, you have a fairly good chance of making up that volume. In addition, we have also seen Lihir continuing to improve its throughput through the plant with the work that the team has been doing on reliability of the plant, we have seen increased reliability and consistency of throughput.
So we will be we believe that we will have a level of catch up capacity through the plant. I think, Hugo, I probably just wanna end up on a little bit more of a broader context. Context, also remind you that the benefit of having a portfolio of assets is that not all of the assets are constrained with the same headwinds.
And if you consider this here, we had Boddington bushfires. We had Tanami bushfires. We had seismic events at Cadia.
We had a number of headwinds, but with the benefit of a global portfolio. We do have opportunity to offset certain headwinds. Right.
Thanks a lot, Natascha. that is helpful color. Then sort of dovetailing nicely into my second question then. Good to see Katie at PC1, 2 cave establishments have resumed, but this is maybe added sort of 6 months or so delayed to timing, to ramping that up later this decade.
On your point around that portfolio, if I have flexibility, I wanted to just talk to where that flexibility might be to continue to support the group getting back to that 6 million-ounce target and where flexibility at Cadia might be to catch up some of that timing?
So you go firstly, as we have worked through the rehabilitation work, the agreement with the regulator, we have been, and I think we have commented on this on. In previous sessions, that we are working to mitigate any potential impact on the project. And we have actually been able to do that.
So as I said in my prepared remarks, PC2 is on schedule. We are back with the development and at least up to the point that we get we get to hydraulic radius. I think that is just from a PC2 point of view and PC3.
On track as I have commented on. So those 2 projects well in hand. If we look a little bit longer term on how we build back to our 6 million ounces.
I think we Brian in his prepared remarks did touch on Q4. I will probably just touch on a little bit longer dated Lihir, we are starting to move into high grade areas as we have committed to do. We have completed the engineering.
Engineered wall at Phase 24, and we are also going into a different phase at Phase 1, with higher grade. Boddington, as we have committed to, has completed its stripping and additional pushback, Boddington is in high grade areas, and Tanami will go into higher grade areas as well. On a previous question, I have commented on Yanacocha and the additional opportunities that we see at Yanacocha.
And lastly, we will start to see CNE 1 with Cerro Negro expansion project as well as Vein Zone the open pit that we are starting to. That we started and we actually intersected some early low-grade ore already. We will see that coming through.
And then on our non managed partners, both in NGM, PV and Frutar del Norte, there is an indicated growth that we are assuming the forecast as well. So I think we are well set up to build back to the 6 million ounces And then projects like Red Chris will then secure that longer term sustaining of a really robust production profile.
Thanks, Natascha. that is helpful.
Thanks, Hugo. Your next question comes from Lawson Winder with Bank of America. Please go ahead.
Thank you very much, operator. And hello, Natascha and team, and thank you for today's update. Great quarter.
Could I ask about your 2026 year-end reserve and resource planning? And, you know, just as you think of all the different moving parts, so the $2,000 per ounce gold price assumption used last year, what are you thinking would be an appropriate gold price assumption for year-end 2026? How might the Lihir and Cerro Negro life extensions play into this?
And then just overall commentary whether Newmont anticipates replacing reserves at end-2026. And maybe actually 1 other question to kind of fit in along with this theme is do you anticipate any impact on Acadia's reserves as a result? I mean, I gather from your prior response that is not the case, but I think just specifically with respect to reserves, not resources, do you anticipate any impact?
Thank you. Lawson, hi there. I just.
We did not clearly hear your third question. You had our assumptions around reserves and resources. And the last 1 was around resource.
Reserves. Sorry. Not the second and the third question, you did not come through clear.
If you do not mind repeating those, please.
Yeah. And I apologize for that. But just to basic gist of the question is, does Newmont ultimately anticipate replacing reserves at year end 2026?
And what are some of the moving parts around that, including gold price and the various operating changes at some of the assets.
Okay. So Brian will take your reserve process question, and I will jump in straight after.
Yeah. Yeah. Thanks, Lawson.
I think as it relates to the pricing considerations for reserves and resources, I think we have shared in the past. We tend to be grounded in looking at the 3 year trailing average. Obviously, a lot of different dynamics that have gone on over the course of the last 3 years.
So we do take that into consideration as well in terms of the volatility of gold price. But I would say that is a good anchor just to note, and so we will anticipate as a result a bit of an increase in terms of the reserve and resource numbers that we will come out with. But we are very much from a process perspective in the midst of that important work on our reserve and resource grounded in price, for sure, but there is obviously a lot of other dynamics associated with progressing the reserve and resource declaration that we are in a position to do that and announce that.
As part of our year end year end close process tied to our business plan and cost outlook. So that is a bit of flavor of what I would share with you with regards to kind of where we are at from a process perspective. But you can anticipate a bit of an increase in gold price.
I think your follow on question to that was how does that impact our thinking about Cerro Negro, Vein Zone, and Yanacocha? I think important. And, Lawson, I think we have we have we have had a little bit of conversation about this before.
Resource and reserves, we are also quite conservative. We think about mine design optimization for productivity of mine design and any near or short term low capital opportunities like Vein Zone and Yanacocha. We do take a different approach to thinking about gold price, and we do consider near term gold price.
Both of these instances is no real capital allocation, quick answers. it is a quick turnaround. That should be able to benefit from the higher gold price environment that we are seeing at the moment. Your question around Cadia, no, would not impact the incidents that we have had.
It will not impact our assumptions around Kydia.
Okay. that is great. Thank you very much.
Thanks, Lawson. Your next question comes from Daniel Morgan with Barrenjoey. Please go ahead.
Hi, Natascha. Back to Red Chris. The returns and IRR of double digit given, is that just for the first 13 years?
And I presume only Macroblock 2, I e, is there any benefit from future caves including that I e, MacroBlock 3 Would you leverage the same crusher for MacroBlock 3? I am just trying to marry up obviously a lot of life of mine infrastructure which happens in phase 1, but perhaps you have not got the benefits and the returns. Just trying to understand that.
Thank you.
Yeah. Daniel, I think that is that is a good assumption. As we indicated, about 40% of the capital that we spend is for infrastructure that will be will benefit future block caves.
This. These economics will assume a 100% of the capital, though. that is part of our standard. So this project needs to be stand alone, have the right economics on a standalone basis.
I think I think that is important. So certainly, we will be able. And perhaps the way you can think about it is just to look at the benefit that we see at Cadia.
We have similar benefits of using shared infrastructure across future caves and the economics just continue to improve.
Yeah. Thank you. And just to ask about the funding, I see that you are looking to plan it.
Obviously, you have got a very strong balance sheet. What are the rights you have under your JV partner agreement and might you contemplate investment more than potentially your 70% interest and get a higher proportion of the project? Thank you.
Yeah. Daniel, we are in discussion with our partner, and they have full visibility of the project capital. And we are working closely with them as they run it through their relevant processes.
Okay. Thank you, Natascha, for your perspectives.
Thanks, Daniel. Your next question comes from Adam Baker with Macquarie. Please go ahead.
Natascha and team. Thanks for the opportunity. Just during the quarter, you have reached an agreement with Barrick to vend Fourmile into the Nevada JV for US$1.95 billion.
Just wondering how you can give us some color to how these discussions came about, including the timing, why now, and also how you landed on the $1.95 billion because this optically appears to be a great deal for you guys. Thank you.
Adam, the final agreement had a number of different components. As you have pointed out, we have Fourmile, Mike and Fiberline that was contributed to the joint venture agreement. We had the opportunity to relook the agreement also from a governance point of view.
And an opportunity for us for us as joint venture partners to work closer together to optimize that district. I think I am personally quite excited about that district because it is the first time that we can look at that district unencumbered. To improve its performance.
So I think it is important to know that a number of different components that came together in the outcome of the $1.95 billion We are pleased that we were able to conclude this with a modernized agreement and I think a really bright outlook for the asset.
Alright. I will leave it there. Thank you.
Thanks, Adam. Your next question comes from Martin Pradier where Veritas Investment Research. Please go ahead.
Thank you for taking my question. So my question is on depreciation. The depreciation year to date has been 1.87 thousand million, rounding.
So about $630 million per quarter. You are $2.81 thousand million, which implies that roughly you have to get a $950 million in the last quarter. Is that realistic?
Or should I think that it should be more like the previous quarters? And the second question would be on the remediation where you have in the 9 months $359 million, it is $358 million, and the guidance is $385 million. So you have very little left.
So if you can provide some guidance on those 2 items. 2 lines. Thank you.
Yeah, Martin. Thanks for the question. As it relates to the depreciation, the way I would think about that is we mentioned that we do have our highest production quarter in the fourth quarter.
So naturally, there will be a bit more depreciation coming off as we as we round out the year. I think as it relates to the guidance that we had at the beginning of the year, you know, there is an element of uncertainty associated with that depreciation estimate. And, certainly, there is an element that we do anticipate that we will probably be at the closer towards the lower end of the range as it relates to that depreciation guidance.
On the remediation and reclamation, if I. If I am thinking of the. What you are referring to as it relates to Yanacocha water treatment plants, We are, as I think we mentioned in the prepared remarks, quite pleased in terms of where the water treatments plants are with relative to their construction and their readiness. And so some of that is reflected in the year to date spend.
And so there we are we are well on pace as it relates to, closing those projects out and getting them compliant in 2027.
So you will be close to that $385 million guidance or you will be out. No. Well ahead of that? that is that is really the goal of the question.
Okay. Sorry, if it is related to the accretion, this would be tied to a core accretion. What you may be seeing is that there is an element of remediation liability that we booked in the third quarter as it relates to our midnight mine operation in the state of Washington.
And that is a bit of a 1 off. it is it is it is not related specifically to accretion.
Thanks. Your next question comes from Anita Soni with CIBC World Markets. Please go ahead.
Thanks for taking my question. My apologies if this has been asked before. But I just wanted to understand the transaction with Barrick for MGM.
Sorry, for Fourmile, has that been tapered? I understand that 30 days from the day that the contract gets written up and that is when you will have to deliver. Has that.
Has that happened yet?
No. That. Anita, that was reflected in the in the opening remarks.
We are on pace to close out the vend-in process, but the payment, you are right, is 30 days after the completion of the vend-in. The vend-in itself has not yet occurred, but we are anticipating it closing in the fourth quarter.
Okay. And then 1 other question. Just on Ahafo North, I was just wondering about the ramp up Sorry.
I was just wondering about the ramp up at Ahafo North in the fourth quarter and going into next year. I it was a little sluggish this quarter compared to my expectations. So just wondering how that evolves over the next 4 or 5 quarters.
Yes, Anita. Thank you for that question. So we do see, as we continue the ramp up, Ahafo North moving into higher grade areas into the next quarter.
So you will see that continuous increase.
as we ramp up. Okay. Thank you. that is my question.
Thanks, Anita. This concludes the question and answer session. I will now turn the call back to Newmont's CEO for closing remarks.
Thank you so much, Rebecca. And just to say thank you, everyone, for joining our call today. We are always enjoy talking to you, and we are excited about the opportunities ahead.
And we are looking forward to updating you on our great progress next quarter.
Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.
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